Leicester Mercury political correspondent
Leicester South by-election
Gill says bye – why?
Mar 24th
It was trashy of Lib Dem HQ to try and bury their bad news under budget mania yesterday.
It didn’t trouble the Mercury, however. We placed the story even more prominently than the budget coverage. The novice spinner in Cowley Street who thought that plan up needs a new job.
The real reason for the Lib Dems replacing Gill with new man Zuffar Haq still isn’t clear. This Guido Fawkes post says it’s because of election irregularities, allegedly discovered by the Lib Dems themselves, in the run up to the 2005 election, and high expenses in Parliament six years ago.
The document mentioned was widely circulated.
It doesn’t fully explain why the party was quite happy for him to stand in a seat which was – at the time at least – seen as a Lib Dem/Labour marginal, just ten months ago.
Yesterday’s event appears to be a combination of factors rather than a single “smoking gun”.
By-elections are high profile, and the Lib Dems can’t afford another epic defeat like the one in Barnsley just a few weeks ago.
A twice-beaten candidate doesn’t inspire confidence from local campaigners. A candidate who let his Labour opponent buck the national trend and increase his majority is even more of a liability.
He also refused to sign a letter, on behalf of city Lib Dem councillors, to distance himself from the toxic tuition fees issue. Leicester South, of course, has a large student population. The Mercury was due to run a prominent story on this decision.
Take the fact that many saw his ten months in Parliament as an expensive but very low profile affair, along with the election document which poses many questions, and you’ve got the makings of the situation where Cowley Street simply had to make a clean break from the past.
From MP to Bailiff to Mayor?
Mar 10th
Sir Peter Soulsby is yet to resign as MP, however the process to select a replacement is well underway and talk over at Labour List suggests that Jon Ashworth may have surged into the lead.
MPs can’t, of course, resign by law. Instead the legal fiction of appointing them to an office of the Crown is used, disqualifying them from continuing to hold office in the Commons.
In a discussion with Peter yesterday he confirmed that he had not yet resigned, adding that he wasn’t quite sure how the procedure worked for him to become the nominal Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds, for example. I wasn’t sure either.
I mischievously pointed out that he’d take over from expense fiddler Eric Illsley if given that position.
Peter scoffed at the thought but rightly pointed out that the token Crown positions are given out on a rotation basis, and that he could be made the Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead instead.
He’s correct. Presuming he’s the next MP to resign from Parliament he’ll technically be in charge of a bit of seaside town Scarborough in North Yorkshire.
And it turns out he’ll take over the role from, er, Sinn Fein man Gerry Adams, who quit Parliament earlier this year.
Suddenly taking over from an expenses crook doesn’t sound so bad, after all.
Who wants Soulsby’s seat?
Mar 7th
There’s a safe seat up for the grabs in Leicester South, and Rory Palmer is probably the frontrunner.
Abdul Osman tells me he’ll go for the selection but after Saturday’s mediocre showing in the mayoral ballot I don’t rate his chances. Ross Willmott will probably go for it too, and coming second in the party ballot for mayor couldn’t have harmed his credentials.
There’ll be many others.
But Rory laid down his cabinet position and associated salary to successfully campaign for Peter, and loyalty counts for a lot in the Labour Party.
He’s also achingly on message, doesn’t come with any baggage, is relatively media-savvy, likes getting out on the doorstep, and has half-decent connections and profile.
He also picks winners - he backed Ed Miliband to become leader of the Labour party very early on in last year’s campaign, as well as Soulsby for mayor.
Just don’t mention that election result.
Has the Lib Dem nomination become a poisoned chalice?
Mar 7th
Just a year ago the Lib Dem nomination for Leicester South was coveted.
Having won a by-election against Sir Peter Soulsby in 2004 there was genuine expectation among some grassroots members that Mr Gill could pull off a win against an ailing Labour Party in May last year.
It was not to be. Sir Peter bucked a national trend and increased Leicester’s vote share in Leicester South.
On Satuday Sir Peter pulled the trigger on a starting pistol for a by-election in South, but this time around there doesn’t appear to be much hope of an upset.
Whoever wins the Labour nomination, many predict, can pack their bags for Westminster.
The main issue that the national media will be focusing on in this Labour safe seat will be the performance of the Lib Dems.
Their candidate slumped in sixth in Barnsley last week. A strong showing in South will give Nick Clegg some breathing space, and Barnsley can be dismissed as an anomaly.
But another terrible performance will increase the pressure on the party’s leadership, and stoke media speculation that the party could be overtaken by UKIP.
The Lib Dem nomination was a big prize just one year ago, has it now become a poisoned chalice?
